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Yes, the whole Kavanaugh debacle sucked, but let’s get past that and focus on the good news: Lots of polls are still showing a Democratic wave barreling towards Washington in November. Below are some of the numbers, which we also discuss in our latest podcast here.
GENERIC BALLOT – DEMS LEAD BY 13
Voters now prefer Democrats by a 13-point margin. That’s up from a 10-point margin only a month ago in this CNN poll. This is referred to as the “generic ballot” — likely voters are asked which party they prefer in the congressional elections. If Democrats are 8-points or more ahead of Republicans, that’s considered a strong wave that could flip the House, and possibly even the Senate.
ENTHUSIASM – DEMS LEAD BY 10
62% of Dems say they’re extremely or very enthusiastic to vote, a 7-point increase since September.
52% of GOP say they’re extremely or very enthusiastic, a negligible increase since September.
GENDER GAP – WOMEN HATE THE GOP
The GOP is suffering from the largest gender gap in memory. Men support Republicans by an 8-point margin, but women support Democrats by a 31-point margin.
A few specific races:
SENATE
ND: Heidi Heitkamp is in danger of losing her reelection in North Dakota. She bravely voted against Kavanaugh, but may pay a price for it in this red state where she’s down against Republican Kevin Cramer. Donate to Heitkamp here.
TX: The pundits have rated the Ted Cruz / Beto O’Rourke race a “toss up,” though the latest poll still shows Cruz ahead by 5. This one is going to be a nailbiter, and Cruz is clearly nervous — he just pulled out of a CNN townhall, that O’Rourke will now do alone. Donate to Beto here.
MO: Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill, who bravely voted against Kavanaugh, is in a tie race with Republican Trumpster Josh Hawley. They’ve been in a tie for a month now. This one is going to be close. Donate to McCaskill here.
NV: This is another nailbiter, that shouldn’t be a naibiter. Rep. Jacky Rosen is making a run for GOP Sen. Dean Heller’s senate seat in Nevada, and Rosen should win this one, but the race has been close, with the latest poll showing Heller ahead by 2 points. This one is winnable, please support Rosen here.
AZ: One of the few surprising polls is Kyrsten Sinema behind by 6 points in her race to become the next US Senator from Arizona, replacing the retiring Jeff Flake. This is a race that Sinema should win, and in fact most polls show Sinema slightly ahead, so this latest one could be an outlier. Please chip into Sinema’s campaign here.
HOUSE
PA: Conor Lamb is ahead by 12 points. Donate to Lamb here.
NJ: Mikie Sherrill is ahead by 4 points. Donate to Sherrill here.
CA: Treason-weasel Devin Nunes is ahead of Democratic challenger Andrew Janz by 8 points, but with a big enough wave, Janz could surprise everyone. Donate to stop Nunes here.
CA: Harley Rouda remains tied with Putin-ally Dana Rohrabacher in CA 48th. Taking down Rohrabacher would be a huge victory, and a huge blow to Trump and Russia. Donate to Rouda here.
Overall, this is all very good news for Democrats. But, as 2016 taught us, we are NOT assured of victory, so go and help where you can with donations or by volunteering, but these poll numbers are good enough, at this point, for us to win this, at least in the House. We just need to keep up the momentum between now and election day.
One final point for those who worry that “good” poll numbers might depress the Democratic vote. After the Kavanaugh mess, I for one could use some good news. These poll numbers didn’t convince me we had the cat in the bag, rather they gave me renewed energy to fight. Sometimes you need good news to recharge your batteries. This is one of those times. JOHN
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